10 April 2012

2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1: Western Conference

(1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (8) Los Angeles Kings

The Vancouver Canucks have quietly put together a remarkable season, winning the Presidents Trophy for the second consecutive year. For as a good a team as they are, I hear far more bad press than I do good. They've developed a less than glamorous reparation around the league. During last years Stanley Cup Finals there were those who asked how any true hockey fan could validate pulling for the Canucks. Perhaps all those people who claimed Rome's hit on Horton was the dirtiest hit they had ever seen missed out on Chara's handy work earlier that season. Mind you, it was a dirty hit on Horton, i'm not saying otherwise. Beyond that one particular occurrence, opposing teams and opposing fans alike have found plenty more reasons to hate the Canucks. The media is also quick to point out a decrease in production from several star players, as well as add fuel to the fire that is Vancouver's alleged goaltending controversy. Never have I seen a goalie more scrutinized than Luongo has been. Yes, he's prone to inconsistencies from time to time, but he's still a very good goaltender. Of course, if he does falter, the Canucks are fortunate to have Cory Schneider on the bench.

Los Angeles's goaltending situation is much more set in stone. Jonathan Quick had a career year, and led the NHL with 10 shutouts. The Kings have needed him to be spectacular thanks in part to their lackluster offense. The Kings 194 goals for is the lowest among all playoff teams, and higher than only Minnesota. To further show how good Quick has been, the Kings have allowed the 2nd fewest goals of NHL teams, behind only St. Louis. The Canucks however finished tied for 4th in scoring. Even with Jonathan Quick playing well, Vancouver will find ways to score. That means the LA Kings are also going to have to find ways to score. On paper, they have the talent to do so, but have struggled to do so all year long. Quick might be able to steal a game or two, but it won't be enough to pull off the upset.

Outcome: Canucks in 6

(2) St. Louis Blues vs. (7) San Jose Sharks

The St. Louis Blues are making their 2nd playoff appearance since the lockout. They are still in search of their first playoff victory however, as they were swept by Vancouver in 2009. They're poised to make a much better showing this go around. Since replacing Davis Payne with Captain Kangaroo, they've proven to be one of the best teams in the league. Their home ice record of 30-6-5 is especially remarkable. Thanks in large part to Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak combining for 15 shutouts, the Blues allowed the fewest goals in the NHL with 165. While the Blues enjoyed their best season in quite sometime, the San Jose Sharks had their worst campaign since the lockout. Though a perennial favorite to win the Cup, they haven't been able to duplicate their regular season success in the playoffs.

The San Jose sharks do have more playoff experience than St. Louis which could provided a slight edge. However, as I just pointed out, most of that experience involved choking. Goaltender Antti Niemi has a Stanley Cup to his name, but doesn't match up to either Elliott or Halak. San Jose arguably has more star power, but that means 0 if they don't produce when called upon. There are those who think the lack of playoff experience will cause St. Louis falter. I don't share that opinion. San Jose will give it their best, but their best isn't all that great. St. Louis shouldn't have too much trouble advancing to the Conference Semifinals for the first time since 2002.

Outcome: Blues in 6  

(3) Phoenix Coyotes vs. (6) Chicago Blackhawks

Much like the Florida Panthers, the Phoenix Coyotes captured their first ever division title. Also like the Panthers, while they maintain home ice advantage, they have a worse record than their opponent. Fortunately, they're coming into the playoffs hot, winners of 5 straight, and have a record of 7-1-2 in their past 10 games. The Blackhawks though are also hot, coming in at 6-1-3. The Blackhawks are two years removed from a Stanley Cup championship and almost pulled an improbable upset against the Canucks in round 1 a year ago. The Coyotes meanwhile, have never, that's right, never, won a playoff series. Since moving to Phoenix in 1996, they've qualified for the playoffs 7 times, and have gone 0-7, with a total record of 13-28. Not good. Thankfully, they don't have to face the Red Wings this go around, who eliminated them the past two seasons.

Much of Phoenix's success can be attributed to the play of goaltender Mike Smith. While I do believe that Lundqvist should win the Vezina, you wouldn't get much of an argument from me if it instead was awarded to Mike Smith. He finished 3rd in save percentage, with .930, and posted 8 shutouts. Perhaps most remarkable was a stretch in February when he posted an 11-0 record. WOW. If he plays up to that level, Phoenix could make a serious run. The Blackhawks have two capable goaltenders in Corey Crawford and Ray Emery, but neither have played with consistency. The Blackhawks are going to have to win this series with offense. Thankfully, they have plenty of it, especially once you factor in the likely return of Jonathan Toews. Chicago will put up one hell of a fight, but I feel as if Phoenix will finally cross that threshold and advance into the second round.

Outcome: Coyotes in 7

(4) Nashville Predators vs. (5) Detroit Redwings

It's Stanley Cup or bust time for the Nashville Predators. They have seemingly been operating under the impression that they'll fail to retain either Shea Weber or Ryan Suter, or in Buffalo Sabres fashion, both. As such, they've stacked their roster in hopes of making a final stand, gambling away their future by sending off draft pick after draft pick. I still can't believe Darcy got a first rounder for Gaustad. In addition to their stout defense, they also have one of the leagues better goaltenders in Pekka Rinne. One concern however is the number of games he's player this season, 73. At the other end of the rink is the Detroit Redwings, making their 21st consecutive playoff appearance. How is it that they've been so damn good for so damn long? You'd think they'd take a year off somewhere along they way, right? Apparently not.

This series is one where home ice advantage may play it's biggest role. Nashville has a home record of 26-10-5, and Detroit has a home record of 31-7-3. You'll recall Detroit set a new NHL record for most consecutive home wins with 23. Despite this, I wouldn't be too surprised if this series featured an abundance of victories by the road team. Detroit needs to win at least one game on the road to win. If they do, Nashville will need to win one back to continue their playoff lives. Both teams have goaltending, both teams play well defensively, and both teams are veteran laden. In my eyes, there might not be a more even  matchup. A Detroit victory wouldn't shock me, but home ice, coupled with the do or die attitude of the Nashville organization gives them the edge.

Outcome: Predators in 7

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